Pachter: PS4 to Sell 130M Units, Xbox One 110M, and Wii U 20M

The console market has reached its peak in terms of overall install base, according to Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter.

He estimates that the 8th generation is going to see similar sales to the 7th generation, however the spread of sales will be very different:

The Wii U is predicted to sell 20 million units lifetime, compared to the Wii's 100 million.
The PlayStation 4 will sell between 120 million and 130 million units.
The Xbox One will sell between 100 million and 110 million units.

"The console installed base is as big as it's ever going to get," said Pachter. "[This] generation is not going to be bigger than the last generation. We're going to be about the same."

"This is the last real console cycle," he added. "I don't mean that Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo will go bankrupt and shut down - they will not. Each of them will make another console, some people will buy them, and the next console cycle will be to this console cycle what the 3DS is to the DS. The 3DS is selling about 15 million units a year, the DS had five consecutive years where it sold more than 26 million. So about half as big."

"So when I say that this console cycle is the last console cycle, the reason is that console games shouldn't require a console. And I'm not talking about the cloud."

Pachter clarified that to play a console game what you need is a CPU, GPU, a controller, storage, and a display. That could mean plugging a smartphone into the TV or using a device similar to AppleTV.

"What happens when you lower the entry so nobody has to buy a console?" he asked. "If Activision sells 20 million copies of Call of Duty to people with a console, how many people would buy it who don't have a console? I'm guessing 20 million more. To make it easier for the Europeans in the room, how many more people would play FIFA if a console wasn't required? Another 20 million."

"How many people would play Grand Theft Auto if you didn't need a console? 100 million. It's crazy numbers. This just makes so much sense. It is going to happen."

"I think the traditional gamer market - which has high standards - does broaden. But the only way you actually see a step function change in that is to pull the console out of the equation, and make it open to people who can't afford or won't buy a console."

"I think this shift to full-game digital downloads, where everybody has the opportunity to play a game without having to invest $399 is a huge opportunity. It's an opportunity for everyone in the value chain, except the retailer and maybe the console manufacturer."